U.S. Corn: See The Signals Before They Move The Price
Treefera's US corn yield forecast is a weekly, county-level prediction of US corn yield, built from satellite imagery and weather data. It is live from April through the October harvest, months before USDA publishes its first field-based estimate in August, and ships with verified uncertainty.
Five weeks before USDA revised. 76% more accurate in the window that matters most.
In the 2022 La Niña drought, USDA held its yield estimate steady through July. Treefera began correcting five weeks before USDA's first survey revision, finishing within 1 bu/ac of WASDE's final January estimate, with verified uncertainty. At roughly 3-5 cents/bu per 1 bu/ac across roughly 83 million harvested acres, that lead time is directly tradeable.
64%
closer to WASDE's own final January estimate than USDA's in-season forecasts, averaged across 2020-2024
76%
peak edge over WASDE, in late August, right when the market is paying closest attention
5
weeks ahead of USDA's first revision in the 2022 La Niña drought, finishing within 1 bu/ac of WASDE's January final, with verified uncertainty
Treefera's advantage doesn't shrink when USDA gets field data, it peaks.
At 76% in late August, our forecast error is a fraction of WASDE's at the same point in the season. The instinct is that official data improves over time. Here the gap widens exactly when the market is most active.
Trusted for billion-dollar supply chain and risk management decisions.
Four reasons Treefera delivers information advantage
Earlier than any public source
Live from April, nearly a month before USDA's first estimate. 32 weekly updates run through harvest, narrowing toward the final answer as the season unfolds.
Validated against five years of out-of-sample data
64% closer to WASDE's own final January estimate than USDA's in-season forecasts, averaged across 2020-2024. Same model specification across all five years, no tuning, WASDE never a model input.
Independent of government reporting
Built on satellite and weather data, not federal survey operations. Continuous through government shutdowns and data blackout periods.
What you receive: financial-grade output with calibrated uncertainty
County-level predictions weighted by crop stage and production share. A signal in a high-density county is a supply event, the same signal in a low-density county is noise. Localised stress registers immediately, not after it reaches a national average.
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FAQ
USDA's first survey-based corn yield estimate arrives in the August WASDE. Earlier WASDE reports use trend models only, with no field data. Treefera's corn yield forecast is live from April and updates weekly, giving the market a county-level signal roughly four months before USDA's first field-based number.
Clear Data. Clear Decisions.
Walk through the model, five years of backtested results and the current 2026 signal - and assess whether it fits your workflow.
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